France avoids recession as economic system returns to progress; China’s manufacturing facility output drops – enterprise dwell | Enterprise
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Introduction: France’s economic system avoids recession with return to progress
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.
It’s a large day for GDP knowledge, as progress figures from throughout the Eurozone – after which North America – are launched via the day.
They’ll give us an perception into how the world economic system fared within the first quarter of this yr, a time dominated by Donald Trump’s second presidency, and the commerce battle that despatched ripples across the globe.
And France has obtained us up and operating, with new knowledge displaying that its economic system has prevented falling into recession.
French GDP rose by 0.1% in January-March, statistics physique INSEE stories. That follows a 0.1% contraction in October-December 2024, and means France has prevented shrinking for 2 quarters in a row (a technical recession).
However, such progress as there was got here from an increase in inventories, as firms stocked up – maybe in preparation for brand new tariffs. That added 0.5% to French GDP.
INSEE stories that remaining home demand and family consumption each stalled.
Funding, or “gross mounted capital formation”, shrank by 0.2%.
Overseas commerce saved contributing negatively to GDP progress within the first quarter (-0.4 factors after -0.1 factors): exports fell sharply this quarter (-0.7% after +0.2%), whereas imports rose once more (+0.4% after +0.5%).
France GDP Development Price QoQ Prel was reported at 0.1% in Q1 from -0.1% within the earlier interval. It was anticipated at 0.2%.
France’s GDP progress returns to constructive territory however falls wanting expectations, indicating a modest restoration. Potential downward strain on the euro, however…
— Bleeding Edge Macro (@BEMacroPublic) April 30, 2025
We’ll hear from Germany, Italy, and the total eurozone this morning.
This afternoon, buyers can be bracing for the most recent US GDP report which can present how America’s economic system fared underneath Donald Trump, as recession fears rise….
The agenda
-
6.30am BST: France’s GDP report for Q1 2014
-
7am BST: Nationwide’s UK home worth index for April
-
9am BST: Germany’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
9am BST: Italy’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
10am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q1 2024
-
12pm BST: Mexico’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
1.30pm BST: US GDP report for Q1 2024
-
1.30pm BST: Canada’s GDP report for February
Key occasions
China’s manufacturing exercise shrinks as US tariffs chew
Manufacturing facility exercise throughout China contracted on the quickest tempo in 16 months in April, a manufacturing facility survey reveals as we speak, highlighting the financial affect from US President Donald Trump’s commerce battle.
China’s official manufacturing buying managers’ index has dropped to 49, the weakest stage since December 2023, down from 50.5 in March.
Any studying under 50 point out that the sector contracted.
This means that the flurry of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by Washington and Beijing this month have damage manucturers.
The Chinese language PMI fell greater than anticipated to 49 from 50.5. The indications provide an alarming first official have a look at the well being of China’s economic system.
A major financial slowdown this quarte that would set off extra stimulus. pic.twitter.com/bhicgVVTML
— Umar Farooq, CFA (@UmarFarooq042) April 30, 2025
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, explains:
“The sharp drop within the PMIs seemingly overstates the affect of tariffs attributable to unfavourable sentiment results, nevertheless it nonetheless means that China’s economic system is coming underneath strain as exterior demand cools.”
“Though the federal government is stepping up fiscal assist, that is unlikely to completely offset the drag, and we count on the economic system to increase simply 3.5% this yr.”
Introduction: France’s economic system avoids recession with return to progress
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.
It’s a large day for GDP knowledge, as progress figures from throughout the Eurozone – after which North America – are launched via the day.
They’ll give us an perception into how the world economic system fared within the first quarter of this yr, a time dominated by Donald Trump’s second presidency, and the commerce battle that despatched ripples across the globe.
And France has obtained us up and operating, with new knowledge displaying that its economic system has prevented falling into recession.
French GDP rose by 0.1% in January-March, statistics physique INSEE stories. That follows a 0.1% contraction in October-December 2024, and means France has prevented shrinking for 2 quarters in a row (a technical recession).
However, such progress as there was got here from an increase in inventories, as firms stocked up – maybe in preparation for brand new tariffs. That added 0.5% to French GDP.
INSEE stories that remaining home demand and family consumption each stalled.
Funding, or “gross mounted capital formation”, shrank by 0.2%.
Overseas commerce saved contributing negatively to GDP progress within the first quarter (-0.4 factors after -0.1 factors): exports fell sharply this quarter (-0.7% after +0.2%), whereas imports rose once more (+0.4% after +0.5%).
France GDP Development Price QoQ Prel was reported at 0.1% in Q1 from -0.1% within the earlier interval. It was anticipated at 0.2%.
France’s GDP progress returns to constructive territory however falls wanting expectations, indicating a modest restoration. Potential downward strain on the euro, however…
— Bleeding Edge Macro (@BEMacroPublic) April 30, 2025
We’ll hear from Germany, Italy, and the total eurozone this morning.
This afternoon, buyers can be bracing for the most recent US GDP report which can present how America’s economic system fared underneath Donald Trump, as recession fears rise….
The agenda
-
6.30am BST: France’s GDP report for Q1 2014
-
7am BST: Nationwide’s UK home worth index for April
-
9am BST: Germany’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
9am BST: Italy’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
10am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q1 2024
-
12pm BST: Mexico’s GDP report for Q1 2024
-
1.30pm BST: US GDP report for Q1 2024
-
1.30pm BST: Canada’s GDP report for February
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