Ukraine’s F-16 Fleet Is at Danger From Trump. Can Europe Change It?

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  • Trump’s newest Ukraine strikes put the way forward for F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine in danger.
  • Europe has some jets that may go well with Ukraine simply as properly, and even higher.
  • However there are far fewer of these planes and altering jet sort now for Ukraine could be laborious.

US-made F-16s had been the primary Western fighter jets to reach in Ukraine, and since then they’ve helped to defend the nation in opposition to Russian air strikes.

However President Donald Trump ordered a pause in US army support to Ukraine final week, that means Europe may have to search out methods to fill the gaps, together with within the air.

Europe, residence to Ukraine’s staunchest allies, has fighter jets which can be equally suited to Ukraine, however there are far fewer of them, and switching to these jets would trigger a bunch of issues that Ukraine can little afford.

Celebrated in Ukraine

Ukraine started asking for F-16s nearly instantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and celebrated their first arrival in August 2024.

The jets, constructed by Lockheed Martin however equipped to Ukraine by the nation’s European allies, have had some notable successes in Ukraine.

Peter Layton, a fellow on the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Power officer, mentioned Ukraine’s F-16s have shot down “quite a few drones and cruise missiles,” in addition to hitting floor targets close to the battlefield.

And whereas air warfare specialists say Ukraine has not been given sufficient of them to tackle Russia close to the entrance strains — or to vary the broader path of the struggle — they have been efficient air defenses.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi speaking into microphones with his hand over his chest. F-16 fighter jets are behind him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the primary F-16 fighter jets acquired by Ukraine on August 4, 2024.

Vitalii Nosach/World Photos Ukraine through Getty Photos



A lot of Ukraine’s allies have extra F-16s they may give, and Trump’s actions might inspire them to ship extra. However as a result of F-16s are American-made, Trump might block them from being despatched to Ukraine.

European nations needed to wait a very long time for US approval to ship their F-16s within the first place.

Layton mentioned the US might additionally cease supplying spare elements, in order that Ukraine’s F-16 fleet “regularly goes unserviceable.”

And whereas European nations have loads of spare elements, if the US withholds approval to switch these, European nations “will be unable to provide Ukraine,” he added.

Europe’s alternate options

Ukraine already has some European jets: Mirage 2000s. However solely a complete of six have reportedly been dedicated to this point.

These jets are seen as useful for Ukraine, however not essentially the most effective match for the kind of combat there.

Sweden’s Gripen plane, made by Saab, is extensively seen as the most effective match, even higher than the F-16. It was designed with a combat in opposition to Russia in thoughts. In consequence, it may take off from civilian roads and is less complicated to take care of.

Justin Bronk, a number one airpower skilled at RUSI, mentioned that “on a platform stage, the Swedish Griffin could be a greater match for Ukraine’s necessities on nearly each stage, simply platform to platform.”

However none of these jets have to this point been dedicated to Ukraine.

Europe additionally has different jets, just like the Eurofighter Storm, however these have not been dedicated both.


The front half of a Swedish Air Force Saab JAS 39 Gripen jetfighter in the air.

A Swedish Air Power Saab JAS 39 Gripen participating in a NATO train.

JOHN THYS/AFP through Getty Photos



Arrange for F-16s

A serious downside going through Ukraine is that its program is closely geared towards F-16s, and switching to a different jet sort would trigger loads of points.

When requested final month if Sweden was contemplating giving it Gripens, Pål Jonson, Sweden’s protection minister, instructed Enterprise Insider he was “having a dialogue” with Ukraine and different nations within the Air Power Coalition, a gaggle of allies dedicated to serving to Ukraine.

However he mentioned it is “more difficult for the Ukrainians to soak up one other fighter,” so Sweden was being suggested to deal with sending airborne sensors that may present command and management for the F-16s.


Two F-16 fighter jets fly over a Patriot Air and Missile Defense System against a gray sky

F-16s fly over a Patriot Air and Missile Protection System in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

AP Picture/Efrem Lukatsky



Bronk mentioned the Gripen might serve Ukraine simply as properly, or higher, however “there’s a lot that goes and has gone into to this point getting the F-16s up and working when it comes to coaching — not simply pilots, however maintainers — and getting all of the logistics arrange.”

He added that “you could not simply swap them out shortly.”

Points with coaching have created a bottleneck in getting the jets into the air over Ukraine and altering to a brand new sort would create a complete new host of necessities.

Mark Cancian, a protection skilled on the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, mentioned that with new jets, “the most important constraint is pilots, and you may’t simply rustle these up in a few weeks.”

He added that the essential factor is not a lot the variations between F-16s and European jets, however the “timeline and numbers and prices.”

There’s additionally one other downside associated to European plane: there are far fewer of every in comparison with the F-16.

That is one of many primary causes the F-16 was seen as the most effective match for Ukraine: there are many them, in addition to loads of spare elements and folks certified to work on them.

George Barros, a Russia skilled on the Institute for the Examine of Struggle, referred to as the F-16 “kind of the perfect mannequin due to how versatile and common the system is.”

He additionally mentioned that Europe couldn’t practice as many pilots on plane just like the Gripen as a result of “comparatively fewer nations” function them.

Europe has vowed to maintain supporting Ukraine, however shedding US assist requires an enormous improve in spending, and a few weapons might be a lot tougher to exchange.

One other jet sort could also be an choice for Ukraine, if the F-16 is now not obtainable, but it surely’s an choice that comes with issues Ukraine can unwell afford.


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